South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics

This study examines how the Medan–Tebing Tinggi Toll Road reshapes local economic dynamics by analysing its effects on (i) regional economic performance, (ii) the continuity and development of signature micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and (iii) their contribution to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Tebing Tinggi City. A sequential explanatory mixed-methods design was employed. Quantitatively, survey data from 120 MSME owners were analysed using simple and multiple linear regression. The key constructs capture perceived impacts of the toll road (accessibility, traffic flows, logistics), the performance of signature MSMEs (turnover, customer base, employment), and local government policies (training, promotion, digitalisation support). These results were complemented with qualitative data from in-depth interviews and field observations, and triangulated with GRDP statistics for 2020–2024. The findings indicate that the toll road does not exert a statistically significant direct effect on aggregate regional economic dynamics (H1: F = 0.167; p = 0.684; R² ≈ 0.001). In contrast, the toll road is significantly associated with changes in the continuity and development of signature MSMEs (H2: F = 9.580; p = 0.002; R² ≈ 0.075), and MSME activity significantly explains the contribution of the trade and food-processing sectors to GRDP (H3: F = 40.351; p < 0.001; R² ≈ 0.255). A moderated regression model shows that combining toll-road impacts, MSME performance, and local government policies accounts for around 41.9% of the variation in regional economic performance (H4: F = 27.896; p < 0.001; R² ≈ 0.419), although the interaction term is only partially significant. GRDP data confirm that Tebing Tinggi’s economy remained dominated by wholesale–retail trade, manufacturing, and services, with cumulative growth of about 14.6% between 2020 and 2024 but without a structural “breakthrough” after the toll road opened. Qualitative evidence reveals a pronounced bypass effect for traditional roadside businesses along the old corridor, alongside emerging opportunities for MSMEs that relocate, re-position, or adopt digital channels. Overall, the toll road is not a stand-alone driver of regional growth; its benefits are transmitted primarily through adaptive MSMEs and enabling local policies. These findings provide nuanced insights for infrastructure planning that links national toll–road projects with place-based MSME development and urban economic resilience.